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NAND supply/demand to balance next year
Release on :2017-09-28
NAND supply will come into balance with demand next year, says DRAMeXchange.
NAND demand has exceeded supply in all six quarters since Q3 2016.
The NAND bit supply growth rate is currently projected at 42.9%, while the bit demand growth rate is projected at 37.7%.
“The progress bottleneck in the transition from the 2D-NAND to the 3D-NAND manufacturing for non-Samsung suppliers has been the main reason why the NAND Flash supply has been tight through 2017,” says DRAMeXchange’s Alan Chen, “some losses of production capacity occurred as non-Samsung suppliers strive to improve their respective 3D-NAND production processes. At the same time, suppliers have been unable to effectively utilise the additional capacity that they have taken on.”
The increase in supply is because the non-Samsung suppliers are expected to reach maturity in the development of their respective 64-and 72-layer stacking technologies in 2018.
Q1’s traditional demand slowdown will see supply supply overtake demand in Q1 only to return to equilibrium for the rest of 2018.
3D-NAND is expected to represent over 70% of the NAND bit output for 2018, up from 50% in 2017, as Hynix, Toshiba and Micron/Intel increase 3D NAND capacity.
Samsung, which started 64-layer production in Q3, will retain technology leadership.
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